FXUS04 KWBC 061902 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 202 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2009 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JAN 07/0000 UTC THRU JAN 08/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... NORTHWEST... A STRONG ONSHORE DEEP LAYERED JET WILL BRING A LONG FETCH OF DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES INTO THE PAC NW LATER TODAY THRU WEDS. 85H WINDS ARE FCST AROUND 50 KTS NEAR THE WA AND NRN OREGON COAST...ALONG WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PUSHING INLAND. LATEST MODEL QPF AMTS ENDING THRU 00Z/08 ARE SIMILAR AND INDICATE 2-4 INCH PLUS AMTS ACROSS WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON...WITH MAX TOTALS IN THE 5-6 INCH RANGE. WITH PERSISTENTLY STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING...HEAVIEST TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND WA CASCADES BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLC... PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE SERN STATES AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING PLAINS TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THIS MOISTURE INFLOW...IMPULSES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH ARE HELPING TO TOUCH OFF HVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALONG A STRONG THERMAL BNDRY. STRONG LL JET AND 1.5 INCH PLUS PW VALUES WILL REACH EAST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY WEDS. AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS INDICATED SIMILARLY ON ALL GUIDANCE FROM MS/AL ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THRU THE SRN MID ATLC REGION. HVST TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE SOURCE WHERE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER AL...NRN GA AND ERN TN...AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM SRN WV TO NC WHERE PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE TERRAIN. 1-2 INCH AMTS SHOULD CROSS VA TO SRN NJ...AREAS WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITHIN AXIS OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE INFLOW. NORTHEAST... WARM ADV AND INCREASING ATLC INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SERN U.S. SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A BATCH OF PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDS. HVST AMTS OF OVER 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST FROM NJ AND LONG ISLAND TO SERN NEW ENG AS A COASTAL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ON WEDS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND STRENGTHENING SFC PATTERN...WENT A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN MOST GUIDANCE TO INDICATE PCPN TOTALS OF .50 INCH OR GREATER THRU MOST OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WITHIN THE MOIST ELY FLOW AND APPROACH OF THE OCCLUDED BNDRY. HEDGE GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 08/00Z 0.01 476663 472652 468643 466638 460631 457625 455624 449621 444621 441621 437623 433627 429628 422627 416628 409635 404641 399650 394666 391667 386666 381667 377670 372678 369685 368690 366699 366713 365720 358726 326749 316758 311761 307765 295774 284784 271794 260803 256807 251812 246823 242835 240839 240845 245848 251848 253848 256852 259857 264860 268862 269865 267868 263873 259878 257886 255893 254900 258902 256906 251915 240937 237943 235949 236952 239954 246955 253952 257948 267939 277932 285927 290927 296929 300929 304927 310923 319916 324918 326921 327926 329938 335945 341949 344948 349943 352938 355925 359912 366899 375884 379878 384872 390869 398867 401866 405868 407871 409875 412883 416890 418894 420899 420905 424914 429920 432925 435936 436939 439943 443944 448944 461947 467949 473954 475958 477963 483971 487975 493974 496969 498962 496947 496941 498935 502919 505911 506903 505895 506888 507878 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434211 429215 426219 422223 424229 420231 414232 408233 404236 402242 405247 408249 413251 421252 445261 452264 456267 468275 477282 488288 494292 502295 507295 513290 0.01 514218 514214 512213 511213 509217 511219 514218 514218 0.01 485196 484191 482186 476184 473184 469188 465191 462195 458198 463201 465204 469201 472199 476198 478196 481196 485196 0.01 420080 421064 418058 415055 407051 401050 395053 389059 387062 384068 383079 384084 386087 392089 395091 398091 402087 412084 416084 418083 420080 0.25 536211 537201 535191 531182 528171 521163 518161 514158 499149 491136 484130 478126 471123 467119 470116 473111 474105 470094 466096 464098 458097 455094 451093 447094 437096 435096 432098 430101 429104 424106 422108 420113 411118 415120 420121 429121 432119 437118 441119 447121 451121 455118 457114 460114 462117 463122 462127 459130 454134 450146 448148 443149 440150 440154 441157 449171 452179 453183 458184 471176 478177 485183 490190 492195 492198 490199 476202 470205 462207 450214 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415072 414068 412065 412064 410063 407062 404062 401064 401065 400068 401071 401072 404073 406076 407076 410077 412077 414076 415072 415072 0.25 290806 290802 288801 285802 282803 280805 277806 275808 273810 271812 269814 270817 272818 275817 278817 280815 283813 285811 287809 289807 290806 0.50 534205 534199 532193 527180 522172 517167 513166 503160 496159 493158 489153 490145 489139 486134 481131 476129 473129 469132 456143 452154 452160 458161 462164 464169 468173 473171 480173 489181 493190 496194 499194 505193 510194 513196 516200 519205 521207 526211 532210 534205 0.50 519269 520263 518256 514242 510233 505221 500214 496208 492204 487202 481202 472206 455214 449218 446220 446224 450226 453226 453229 446233 443236 440238 441242 444245 450248 460252 469258 488271 495278 501282 507284 513279 519269 0.50 459721 454708 449700 446696 436690 431681 427676 423674 416675 411680 407687 398698 392705 390710 385719 380731 376742 372757 368766 361776 354786 352792 350800 345808 340818 333827 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496242 494240 493239 491235 490234 488231 486228 483227 480226 479226 479230 480231 482233 485236 485237 487238 490240 492244 495248 495249 497252 500251 1.00 482138 480136 477136 476137 477138 480139 482138 1.00 417710 416704 413700 409699 404703 394721 387734 383744 381754 379759 375768 372775 367784 367792 367796 365800 355816 346828 338842 336846 335849 336858 336864 338865 340862 346862 351858 361848 367841 372835 380820 389805 392799 396790 399781 400771 413759 417754 416748 414742 414738 414730 415724 417710 1.00 447109 447108 444105 442104 441104 440104 438107 437108 438109 441110 444111 447110 447109 1.50 515262 514255 511247 505234 499222 495214 491210 485207 481206 478207 473209 467213 459217 456219 457223 460228 458232 452236 450238 451241 455243 459245 465247 470250 481258 487262 494267 496268 499267 500264 499261 493250 489243 484238 475229 475227 477224 480224 487226 490231 499243 502248 505255 508262 512265 515262 1.50 474163 475159 473156 471154 470153 468152 465152 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