FOUS30 KWBC 061903
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
202 PM EST TUE JAN 06 2009

...VALID 18Z TUE JAN 06 2009 - 00Z THU JAN 08 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S FQD 15 ESE 47A 30 W TCL 1M4 40 SE GLW 15 ENE JKL 30 SW CRW
25 ENE CRW 15 WSW W22 25 NNE EKN 15 SSE W99 SHD 15 NE LYH
10 ESE MWK 10 S FQD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSW CLM 25 SE CLM SHN 10 N OLM GRF 10 SSW SEA AWO BLI CWMM
15 NNE CWMM 10 NW CWZA 30 SE CWZA 55 NNW EAT 40 W YKM 30 NNE CZK
10 W CZK 15 NE SPB 10 NNW SPB 15 WNW MMV 20 SSW S47 10 WNW S47
25 NNW AST 25 SSE UIL 20 NW UIL 35 N UIL 10 SSW CLM.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
10 S PSK 30 W MRN 20 S RHP 15 ENE 4A9 15 ESE HSV 15 ENE CSV
20 N 1A6 20 WSW I16 20 WNW LWB 25 NNW HSP 25 NNW ROA 10 S PSK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
50 E AWO 30 NNE SMP 10 WSW SMP 35 SE TCM 25 NE TDO 20 ENE RNT
10 ENE AWO 20 NE BVS 25 ESE CYXX 45 NE AWO 50 E AWO.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM
25 S CLM 20 NW SHN 20 NE HQM 15 N HQM 35 NNW HQM 20 SE UIL
10 ENE UIL 25 E UIL 25 S CLM.



GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE SERN STATES AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING PLAINS TROUGH.  PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE
TROUGH ARE HELPING TO TOUCH OFF HVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION
ALONG A STRONG THERMAL BNDRY.   PW VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ARE
ALONG THE LOW LVL JET OVER THE CNTRL GULF REGION AND WILL PROGRESS
EWD ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL BNDRY THRU AL TONIGHT.  AN AXIS OF
HEAVY RAIN TOTALS IS INDICATED ON ALL GUIDANCE FROM MS/AL ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THRU THE SRN MID ATLC REGION....MOST OF
WHICH OCCURS BY EARLY WEDS.  HVST TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING ARE CENTERED ON THE REGION FROM NRN
AL AND ERN TN TO SWRN VA.

A STRONG ONSHORE DEEP LAYERED JET WILL BRING A LONG FETCH OF DEEP
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES INTO THE PAC NW LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.   WITH 85H WINDS AROUND 50 KTS NEAR THE WA AND
NRN OREGON COAST AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PUSHING
INLAND...LATEST MODEL QPF AMTS ENDING AT 00Z/08 INDICATE AREAL
AVGS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER WRN WA AND NWRN OREGON WITH MAX AMTS IN
THE 5-6 INCH RANGE.   WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING...HVST TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND WA
CASCADES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WITH SNOW LEVELS ON THE
INCREASE...THESE HVY AMTS COMBINED WITH SNOW MELT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GENERATING RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

HEDGE
$$